We began a math unit on probability today. Let me just say up front that I love teaching about probability and consider central to my teaching success that none of my students leave 5th grade thinking that winning the lottery is a good retirement plan. At this age, students often are able to tell you the probability of an event like rolling a one on a die (1 out of 6). But, if you roll a one and then ask what the probability of rolling another one is in the very next roll they'll hesitate — they "know" the math but they still are concrete enough to doubt it.
Our work will be a mix of experimental probability and theoretical or mathematical probability. For example, today we played the game of "Pig" in which you try to be the first person to 100 points. Your points are the sum of a dice roll — however, if you roll a "1" on either die your score for the round is zero and, if you roll two ones your entire score is lost. You may continue to roll as long as you don't get a one or you can "stick" and keep the score you've accumulated that round. After playing a game or two, I asked students to share their highest round score and we looked at the most common data (in the 20s). I then asked them to roll a die and record how many rolls it took to roll a 1. We'll look at the data tomorrow and use it to develop strategies for playing Pig successfully. I'll also talk to them about the theoretical probability behind our experiment (you have a 1/2 chance of rolling a one in three rolls).
Play some games of chance with your Heron. Flip coins, roll dice, count cards. Have fun using math to challenge our human sense of how the world should work.
The Rookery 
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