The Rookery

probability:
the chance that something will occur

(how likely it is that an event will happen)

 With games of chance set up on every visible surface, the carnival-goers streamed into the Prairie Creek gym wide-eyed tickets in hand. Each of the 4^th and 5^th graders had a game that they had developed set up ready to be played. The eagerly awaited their players, curious to see if the results of the day matched their mathematical expectations. Each game had the mathematical probability of winning posted, which each student had figured out in the planning stages, but there were still surprises. With an astonished look on her face, one 5th grader revealed, “I had expected 10 out of 50 to win, and I’ve only had 48 players and I’ve already given out 27 prizes.” A great hands on example of mathematical versus experimental probability really hit home in our conversation.

These were all games of chance. Games with no skill involved. (Though you may have had a hard time convincing one 1st grader who was overheard saying, “When I shake the dice extra hard, I get more sixes”). Whether it was a homemade spinner, a dice, or a pick a number game, student’s young and old were had the opportunity today to internalize their understanding of the likelihood of a certain event occurring (resulting in a prize in hand). Judging from the conversations and smiles, fun was had by all!  

— by Amy B.